Global Climate in 1984 and Now

GLOBAL CLIMATE in 1984 and NOW

Anonymous

(Investigator 196, 2021 January)

Accelerating melt-off from glaciers and especially ice sheets in Antarctica is helping drive sea level rises, threatening coastal megacities and small island nations... The past decade has been the hottest on record ... with last year being the second-hottest year, after 2016. (The Weekend Australian, February 15-16, 2020, p. 6)

THE BACKGROUND

In recent years the phrase "climate emergency" has resounded around the world. Vaughen (2019) writes: "More than 600 local and national governments have declared climate emergencies since January 2018..."

My concern with this topic started when, as a young person in 1970, I took time off to give attention to the Bible. Deuteronomy 28:22-24 links adverse climate to people rejecting God. Job 38:22-23 implicates snow and hail. And Jesus' words "distress among nations confused by the roaring of the sea and the waves" (Luke 21:25), taken literally, implied a rise in ocean levels.

A year later I purchased the book Wilderness and Plenty (1971), authored by English ecologist/conservationist Sir Frank Fraser Darling (1903-1979), which warned of future sea-level rise due to atmospheric heating from the build-up of carbon dioxide. This strengthend the expectation that I got from the Bible. (See: "Sea Levels and The Bible", Investigator #179)

In 1973 a news report titled "Crazy Weather World-Wide" seemed to give further support and I filed it for future reference.

In 1984 I was studying for a science degree at the University of Adelaide. Worth 30% of the assessment (of that subject for 1 term) was a research essay which students could select from a number of offered topics. The lecturer warned "The climate topic is the most difficult" but, predisposed by the Bible, it's the topic I chose — titled "Air Pollution and the World's Climate".

Some of the essay's references were groundbreaking and still get cited by academics. Roger Revelle (1909-1991), Californian oceanographer and pioneer researcher into human impact on climate, forecast a 3^oC rise in average world temperature in the 21^st century. Bert Bolin (1925-2007), Swedish meteorologist, researched the impact on climate of the world's increasing production and use of energy. Mikhail Budyko (1920-2001) of Russia authored Heat Balance of the Earth's Surface (1956) and later calculated that a 50% rise in atmospheric CO₂ could melt the ice caps.

My essay summarized the science of climate change as it was in the early 1980s. My conclusion left the verdict open — whether global temperature would increase, or sea levels rise, was not scientifically established.

Now, in the 21st century, with thousands of temperature and weather records being broken, glaciers retreating, Arctic ice-cover shrinking, extreme weather-events increasing, and international climate conferences occurring regularly, the conclusion could be different. Jesus' words "distress among nations confused by the roaring of the sea and the waves'' could become a literal description of global coastal flooding and nations scrambling to survive.

WHOSE RESPONSIBILITY?

The following table, based on Wikipedia, compares CO₂ (Carbon dioxide) emissions (from burning of fossil fuels and cement manufacture but not land-use, forestry and shipping) of the 17 top countries in 2017 with 1990:

Table 1

Country	Emissions in Millions of Tons 1990	Emissions in Millions of Tons 2017	% of Global Emissions 2017	Emissions Per Capita in Tons 2017
World	22,674	37,077	100%	4.9
China	2,397	10,877	29.3%	7.7
USA	5,086	5,107	13.8%	15.7
India	606	2,455	6.6%	1.8
Russia	2,379	1,765	4.8%	12.3
Japan	1,149	1,321	3.6%	10.4
Germany	1,018	797	2.1%	9.7
S. Korea	270	673	1.8%	13.2
Iran	207	671	1.8%	8.3
Saudi Arabia	166	639	1.7%	19.4
Canada	456	617	1.7%	16.9
Indonesia	162	511	1.4%	1.9
Mexico	290	507	1.4%	3.9
Brazil	229	493	1.3%	2.4
S. Africa	312	468	1.3%	8.2
Turkey	150	430	1.2%	5.3
Australia	275	402	1.1%	16.5
UK	589	379	1.0%	5.7

The Paris Agreement (2015) on greenhouse-gas emissions committed the nations to reduce their CO₂ emissions so as to limit global warming to below 2^oC.

Some governments have argued that countries with high per capita rates of carbon emissions, like Australia and USA, have the primary responsibility to act. HOWEVER, China emits 29% of the global total (Table 1), and still increasing. Australia, which emits only 1.1% of the world total, fears committing "economic suicide" for no reason if it reduced while China doesn't. Twelve other countries have even higher per capita rates than Australia but lower total emissions (except Saudi Arabia & Canada) and can likewise make no global difference.

Australia could reduce its emissions by closing its gas industry. But China imports Australian gas and would probably compensate by importing more coal (it already has 1000 of the worlds 2500 coal-fired power stations). China's 29% of world carbon emissions would then rise even faster!

This conflict of interests is aggravated by third world nations wanting to industrialize, thereby needing to raise their carbon emissions, arguing in effect — "That's how the rich nations got rich; why therefore should we stay poor?"

It's a conundrum.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS

Increase in average global air temperature has been mitigated by absorption of heat into the oceans. Pearce (2005) reported: "The oceans eventually absorb 84 per cent of the Earth's extra heat." Whipple (2019) writes: "93 per cent of all heating occurs in the oceans, unnoticed by traditional meteorological stations..."

Eventually warming oceans should result in increased ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica, and perhaps dislodge ice-shelves by warming from below.

In 2019 The Weekend Australian reported:

July was the hottest month across the globe ever measured... (August 7, 2019, p. 9)

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in 2020 found that:

The world’s five warmest years have all occurred since 2015 with nine of the 10 warmest years occurring since 2005, according to scientists from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)...
Ocean heat content, which describes the amount of heat stored in the upper-levels of the ocean, was the highest ever recorded. High ocean-heat content can contribute to sea-level rise...

New Scientist reported:

...the Himalayas have lost a quarter of their ice mass since 1975. (Vaughen 2019)

Children born now could live to see the oceans rise well over a metre by 2100..." (Le Page 2019)

More of Greenland's ice was lost in 2019 than in any year since measurements began... The loss of all Greenland's ice would add at least 6 metres to global sea level... (Le Page 2020)

My 1984 science essay, "Air Pollution and the World's Climate" is now available to Investigator Magazine.

REFERENCES:

Bolin, B. The Impact Of Production And Use Of Energy On The Global Climate!
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/ annurev.eg.02.110177.001213

Budyko, M. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Budyko.htm

Le Page, M. Greenland lost a record amount in 2019, New Scientist, 29 August, 2020, p. 18

Le Page, M. Sea levels look set for even higher rise, New Scientist, 16 February, 2019, p. 12

Pearce, F. Climate evidence finds us guilty as charged, New Scientist, 11 June, 2005, p. 17

Revelle, R. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Revelle

Van Onselen, P. No Denying, Too Small To Matter Doesn't Cut It, The Weekend Australian, December 21-22, 2019, p. 18

Vaughen, A. Ice melt in world's highest mountain range speeds up, New Scientist, 29 June, 2019, p. 16

Vaughen, A. The time for talk is over, New Scientist, 29 June, 2019, p. 23

Whipple, T. Scientists alarmed at speed of ocean warming, The Weekend Australian, January 12-13, 2019, p. 13

https://climateactiontracker.org

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List-of-countries-by-carbon-dioxide-emissions

https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-21/study-finds-greenlands-ice-sheet-saw-record-mass-loss-in-2019/12581428.htm

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/ climate-change-global-temperature

https://www.noaa.gov/news/2019-was-2nd-hottest-year-on-record-for-earth-
say-noaa-nasa.htm

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-environment-carbon-emission-idUSKBN2150YY

COMMENT ON PART II of
"AIR POLLUTION AND THE WORLD'S CLIMATE"

(Investigator 197, 2021 March)

Anonymous

"In the United States, almost 40% of the population lives in relatively high population-density coastal areas,
where sea level plays a role in flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms." (Lindsey 2016)

CHLORINATED COMPOUNDS AND OZONE (O₃)

Part II of my science essay, Air Pollution and the World's Climate (1984), begins with "Chlorinated Compounds and Ozone (O₃)", examining the destruction of the ozone layer in the upper atmosphere.

That particular air pollution problem got mitigated in 1987 when 56 countries signed the Montreal Protocol to cut production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).

CFCs were used as refrigerator and air-conditioner gases and spray-can propellants. James W. Elkins explains:

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are nontoxic, non-flammable chemicals containing atoms of carbon, chlorine, and fluorine. They are used in the manufacture of aerosol sprays, blowing agents for foams and packing materials, as solvents, and as refrigerants. CFCs are classified as halocarbons, a class of compounds that contain atoms of carbon and halogen atoms. Individual CFC molecules are labeled with a unique numbering system. For example, the CFC number of 11 indicates the number of atoms of carbon, hydrogen, fluorine, and chlorine (e.g. CCl₃F as CFC-11).

In 1974 scientists F.S. Rowland (1927-2012) and M.J. Molina (1943-2020, reported that chlorine (Cl), which is produced when CFCs interact with UV light, progressively destroys ozone in the upper atmosphere.

CCl₂F₂ + UV Light —> CCIF₂ + Cl

CCl₃F + UV Light —> CCl₂F + Cl

Earth’s ozone layer blocks the sun’s ultraviolet rays, therefore its depletion would escalate skin cancer rates and eventually decimate plants including agriculture. Further research found that global climate would also be affected.

The U.S. pushed for international controls on CFCs but this was interrupted by the election of Ronald Reagan as president. Linden (1993) in Time magazine reported:

The environmental Protection Agency was taken over by a pro-business team that did not like regulations and distrusted international agreements. Anne Burford, who headed the EPA in the early 1980s, regarded ozone depletion as an unsubstantiated scare story. Many demoralized professionals resigned, leaving the agency with few people who had any background on the issue.

Du Pont [the American company that invented CFCs and dominated global production] which poured $15 million into developing substitutes during the late 1970s, all but halted its research… Du Pont challenged Rowland at every turn in the 1970s, and he believes the company's aggressiveness sent a chilling message to other scientists in the field.

In 1985 Joseph C. Farman (1930-2013) and colleagues announced in Nature journal that stratospheric ozone over Antarctica had declined 40%. This reduction became known as the Antarctic ozone hole.

At this stage the political world acted and agreed in the Montreal Protocol to reduce the use of CFCs.

The ozone hole is now steadily getting smaller.

A threat that could have destroyed civilization was solved by scientific research and appropriate political response!

NITROGEN AND OZONE

Section 7 of my essay titled "Nitrogen and Ozone" is heavy on chemistry but inconclusive on whether ozone-nitrogen interactions will have a net cooling effect by destruction of ozone, or net warming effect by build-up of nitrous oxide (N₂O). The latter now seems to be the case:

The application on farms of synthetic fertilizers such as ammonium nitrate (the stuff that exploded in Beirut in 2020 and damaged entire suburbs) contributes to global warming. When applied to crops synthetic fertilisers generate, via various chemical reactions, the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N₂O) which is more than 200 times as effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide!

CLOUD COVER

The overall climatic effect of changes in cloud-cover, which Sections 5 and 11 of the 1984 essay comment on, is still ambiguous. One recent finding is that if CO₂ concentration were to reach 1200 parts per million, stratocumulus clouds which shield planet Earth over subtropical oceans would break up and disperse. This could raise global temperature 8^oC! (Schneider et al 2019)

Warmer oceans could potentially melt Antarctic and Greenland ice-shelves from below. Although the Antarctic icecap may initially expand (due to extra rainfall because global warming increases evaporation rates) and therefore reflect more heat back to Space, this could be counteracted if warmer water melts coastal ice from underneath.

Lindsey (2016) writes: "The pace of global sea level rise almost doubled from 1.7 mm/year throughout most of the twentieth century to 3.2 mm/year since 1993."

Lawton (2019) writes: "1.5^oC warming is projected to cause between 26 and 77 centimetres sea level rise relative to 2005… That puts at least 136 port megacities at risk of inundation."

Such events would literally match Jesus' words "distress among nations confused by the roaring of the sea and the waves." If for any reason the future sees a huge increase in the number and size of tsunamis that too could fulfil Jesus' words. The ocean-elevation interpretation now has scientific explanation and support, but both interpretations could be valid.

If the ambiguities in how Antarctica and Greenland will respond to global warming turn out to be worst-case scenarios, hundreds of cities and their inhabitants and vast areas of agricutural land will be in trouble.

TREES

The essay twice suggests that large-scale tree planting could counteract CO₂ build-up.

Swanson (2019) reports that Earth has about 3 trillion (3000 billion) trees. Of the 10 billion tons of carbon humans put into the air annually a quarter is absorbed by oceans and half is removed by means unknown but probably by plant-life, especially trees, and: "Earth could support enough additional trees to cut atmospheric carbon levels by 25 per cent."

However, "Worldwide, some 15 billion trees are felled each year."

Much of the world's tree-destruction occurs in the Amazon rainforest. A decade or two ago we heard reports of deliberately-lit fires, during the dry season, so vast that smoke darkened the Sun above cities a thousand kilometres away, and of conservationists who campaigned to stop the fires getting murdered. The destruction still goes on:

Brazilian space agency INPE identifies 8426 sq km of Amazon rainforest lost to deforestation last year, using its DETER monitoring program, which analyses satellite images. (Sunday Mail, January 10, 2021, p. 60)

DENIERS

Otto (2011) writes:

Between January 2009 and June 2010 … the energy industry spent half a billion dollars fighting climate change legislation. They spent an estimated $73 million more on anti-clean energy ads. Much of the effort was to cast doubt on the findings of climate science or impugn scientists' reputations and motives.

Perhaps climate-change deniers should learn from the ozone-destruction story outlined above and how political action in response to scientific research probably saved civilization.

Climate-change deniers have proliferated and include policy makers such as former President Trump. Petersen et al (2019 ) in Nature listed 386 contrarians and 386 "expert scientists" and tracked them across 100,000 English-language media articles and found that: "contrarians are featured in 49% more media articles than scientists". Editors and journalists are giving the contrarians "disproportionate attention". Petersen writes: "It's time to stop giving these people visibility, which can be easily spun into false authority."

Others argue it's bad for science to try to silence opposing views. But what about when false views are the views most aired and promote inaction that threatens the future wellbeing of 10,000 million people?

The title of a recent book encapsulates what's happening in Australia — The Carbon Club: How A Network of Influential Climate Skeptics, Politicians and Business Leaders Fought to Control Australia's Climate Policy (Marian Wilkinson, 2020, Allen & Unwin).

New Scientist reported in 2014:

Just after its hottest year on record, Australia is once more sweltering in a heatwave that has engulfed Victoria and South Australia. Heatwaves are becoming increasingly common, but the country's new government doesn't accept that this is down to climate change and is doing little...

Some suburbs are planting more greenery to stay cool, but the federal government is sitting on its hands. "It's reluctant to do anything because that would mean admitting climate change is a reality," … (18 January 2014, p. 15)

The 21st century began with a "hiatus" in global warming when atmospheric CO₂ continued to increase but warming stopped.

The explanation is, at least in part, that the oceans absorb some of the extra heat. Cheng et al (2019) report:

About 93% of the energy imbalance accumulates in the ocean as increased ocean heat content (OHC). The ocean record of this imbalance is much less affected by internal variability and is thus better suited for detecting and attributing human influences than more commonly used surface temperature records. Recent observation-based estimates show rapid warming of Earth’s oceans over the past few decades…

Although climate model results … have been criticized during debates about a “hiatus” or “slowdown” of global mean surface temperature, it is increasingly clear that the pause in surface warming was at least in part due to the redistribution of heat within the climate system from Earth surface into the ocean interiors...

The fairly steady rise in OHC shows that the planet is clearly warming…

Australia experienced even greater heat-waves in the summer of 2019/2020 than in 2014 along with unprecedented bushfires, emergency decrees, fiery destruction of towns, and the evacuation of thousands of people from threatened areas. Whether global warming contributed is debated because another factor is the accumulation of dead wood in forests due to failure to do controlled burns. Other years are seeing record rainfall, hurricanes and floods because warmer oceans mean increased evaporation.

Some influential commentators accept climate-change science but oppose spending on reducing human carbon emissions, arguing it's not cost-effective and the nations should instead adapt to warmer weather. That however depends on which climate-change scenario eventually plays out. If for example large areas of Earth become too hot to live in, or huge methane clouds released from Arctic permafrost drift around until ignited and explode like nuclear bombs, or rising ocean levels displace several billion people, then only very wealthy people would have the resources to adapt and live safely.

As climate change progresses there will be increased legal action as a form of protest or to hold alleged major perpetrators to account. The legal firm Norton Rose Fulbright reports: "As at November 2020, the total number of climate change cases filed to date has reached over 1,650... Cases have now been filed in all six continents and in at least 36 countries…"

THE SITUATION NOW

The latest global warming statistic is that the last seven years, 2014-2020, were the seven warmest. The global climate situation looks more sinister now than in 1970 when I got the idea of sea-level rise from the Bible, or than in 1984 when I wrote on "Air Pollution and the World's Climate"!

REFERENCES:

Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Hausfather, Z, and Trenberth, K.E. How fast are the oceans warming? Science, 11 January, 2019, Volume 363, Issue 6423, 128-129
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6423/128/tab-figures-data

Elkins, J.W.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/hats/publictn/elkins/cfcs.html

Lawton, G. The new normal, New Scientist, 19 January, 2019, 34-37

Molina, M.J. and Rowland, F.S. Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: Chlorine atom-catalyzed destruction of ozone, Nature, 249, pp 810-812, 1974
https://www.nature.com/articles/249810a0

Farman, J.C., Gardiner, B.G. and Shanklin, J.D. Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx interaction, Nature, Volume 315, 207-210, 1985
https://www.nature.com/articles/315207a0

Kellogg, W.W. Influences Of Mankind On Climate, Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 1979. 7: 63-92
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.ea.07.050179.000431

Linden, E. Ozone Slayers, Time, May 17, 1993, 50-51

Lindsey, R. June 10, 2016 Climate Change: Global Sea Level
www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level

Norton Rose Fulbright
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-au/knowledge/publications/ 0c9b154a/climate-change-litigation-update

Petersen, A.M. et al. Discrepancy in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians,
Nature Communications, volume 10, Article number: 3502 (2019)

Otto, S.L. Special Report Science In America, New Scientist, 29 October, 2011, 38-41

Schneider, T., Kaul, C.M. and Pressel, K.G. Possible climate transitions from breakup of stratocumulus decks under greenhouse warming, Nature Geoscience, 12, 163-167, 2019
https://www.nature.com/articles/541561-019-0310-1

Suddick, E. et al. The role of nitrogen in climate change and the impacts of nitrogen–climate interactions in the United States: foreword to thematic issue
Biogeochemistry, volume 114, pages1–10 (2013)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10533-012-9795-z.htm

Swanson, C. Seeing the woods, New Scientist, 5 October, 2019, 34-37

Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record
https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/synthetic-fertilizer-ammonium-nitrate-makes-climate-change-worse
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/education/info_activities/pdfs/TBI_nitrogen_cycle

Climate Change Denial
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change_denial
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09959-4
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/
S0959652617317821

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