PROPHETS FOR PROFIT

[From: A Skeptic's Casebook]

Part 1
 
(Investigator #225,  2025 November)

Despite the futility, predicting the future, or rather attempting to predict the future, has fascinated man since the beginning of time. From the earliest attempts at auguring with the entrails of sheep and a host of other mantic arts, his attempts have not met with much success. Despite the dramatic advance in sources of knowledge, the availability of information, statistics, methods of projection and so forth, modern clairvoyants, psychics and other mystical prognosticators are no more successful today than their forebears were thousands of years ago. Occasionally one hears of a successful hit, but when looked at closely it is usually based on the laws of probability, prior knowledge or simply lucky guesswork.

This chapter covers some of those at which I have taken a look. Astrologers of course claim to see the future in the stars, and due to the ambiguity and general phraseology used in their predictions which allows them to claim accuracy, many people tend to believe in them. This belief is reinforced when public attention is focused on a prediction claimed to have come to pass. However, the vast majority of predictions, those that do not happen, are rarely mentioned. Thus it can be seen that 'successful' psychics depend far more on marketing skills than on predictive abilities. To ascertain just what percentage of predictions do succeed, I have made a point of keeping records of predictions made by various prognosticators—the hits average approximately five per cent, and even these can be attributed to the reasons already given.

It is said that there are only two things certain in this world— death and taxes. I would suggest that there are three—the third being certain failure for those trying to predict the future. The coming of the Messiah predicted by the Mission for the Coming Days for 1 am October 29, 1992, was a recent example in a long, long list of let-downs for those inclined to believe in man's ability to prophesy. It wasn't the first and it won't be the last, particularly as this century comes to a close. Let's take a brief look down through the ages at some of the unfulfilled prophecies.



'... the Lord of Hosts will appear in his glory on the Mount of Olives, the mountain that rises high above Jerusalem, to war against the nations and to mete out retribution to them. At this awe-inspiring theophany, the whole mountain will shake and be cloven asunder, as the earth was convulsed in the great earthquake that occurred in the reign of Uzziak.'
 Book of John.


Apocalyptic forecasts span written history from pre-biblical times to the present day, and as I catalogued the dismal litany, I found it difficult to comprehend what motivated people to make them, particularly as if they were accurate, there would be no one left around to give an accolade.
 
Apocalyptic ideas date back at least to Babylonian times; in the Bible alone theologians have found more than three hundred references to the coming of the Messiah, the anti-Christ and the end of the world.

About 90 AD, St John the Divine also known as John the Evangelist wrote explicitly in Revelation about a book closed with seven seals, the breaking of each revealing certain aspects of the apocalypse. The first four were the four horsemen of the apocalypse representing the evils of war, conquest, famine and death. The fifth, the slaughtered martyrs of Jesus; violent earthquakes on the breaking of the sixth; the seventh heralding the appearance of seven angels with trumpets, the sounding of each trumpet bringing forth more disasters; hail, fire, blood, pestilence and pollution, during which one third of the world's population will perish. With the exception of trumpet blowing angels (if we include an all-girls band), all these disasters have in one form or another beset the world since the New Testament was codified, but like old man river, the world keeps rolling along.

In seeking why there is a conviction that the world will come to a sticky end one needs look no further than the Kingdom of Judea, six hundred years before the birth of Christ, when the Jews believed God to be the divine judge, rewarding and punishing as deserved.

After the crushing of Judea by the Chaldeans, the exiled Jews in Babylonia idealised the return of the kingdom and a king as the rewards of virtue in the future, referring to the coming of the Messiah, or anointed one. A description of the coming of God's retribution and reward is given in the Book of Isaiah in which the oft quoted messianic prophecies are to be found.

The Jewish prophets became more graphic on their return from exile, and the notion of Judgment Day became more and more extreme in the second century BC. During the Roman occupation of Judea, a number of claimants to the title Messiah appeared, among them Jesus of Nazareth, whose followers were called Messianics. The promise of a kingdom of heaven was preached by John the Baptist, and, as more and more Gentiles were converted, the Greek word for Messiah (Christos) was substituted, the followers then being known as Christians. With the preachings of the Apostle Paul came the gradual conversion of Rome and parts of Europe to Christianity. The accompanying persecution by the Roman Emperors Nero and Domitian, fuelled the apocalyptic promises (in particular the punishment of enemies) of the Old Testament Book of Daniel, then revived in the Book of Revelation.
 
The urge to believe in something or someone encourages reinterpretation of the vague predictions leading to further speculations of the Day of Judgment and the Second Coming. One popular formula involves the figure of one thousand years: In the Book of Revelation we read:


Given that the ancients used arbitrary figures for dating, ages and time spans generally, the only significance I can see in the figure is its four digit simplicity. Others spend years trying to calculate and read into it the date of the Armageddon.
 
Many religious movements, the followers of which are known as 'millennialists', later known as Second Adventists and Jehovah's Witnesses are examples.
 



John of Toledo, a 12th century astrologer correctly forecast the conjunction of all the planets under the sign of Libra for September 1186. He interpreted this to mean terrible storms and earthquakes and panic spread throughout Europe and the Middle East, but the catastrophe failed to materialise.

The end of the world beginning with a deluge on London on February 1, 1524, was the consensus of a group of astrologers in 1523. Twenty thousand inhabitants deserted the city ... and nothing happened. The astrologers had miscalculated, the end of the world was not due until 1624!

Johannes Stoffler, a German astrologer and mathematician made two attempts, one for February 20, 1524, preceded by a giant flood, and when that failed to materialise, had another stab at 1528. Coincidentally, there was heavy rain on February 20, and in the ensuing panic hundreds of people lost their lives fleeing for higher ground. Stoffler's second forecast was ignored by those who had learned their lesson.
 
Using the measurements of the Great Pyramid of Cheops, pyramidologists have forecast the second coming for 1881, 1936, and 1953, but not the end of the world, for in 2001 a new age will dawn better than anything we have known.

John Stone, a Melbourne businessman, predicted in his book, The Doomsday City , (1973), a Russian nuclear attack on that city. Together with seventy followers he constructed a 'doomsday city' to wait out the coming holocaust. The date of the forthcoming disaster was based on parts of the Bible and his own calculations of the size of the pyramids and was set for October 2, 15, or 31, 1978. Then, just in case, September 23, 1979.
 
Layland Jensen and Charles Gaines stocked their fall-out shelters in the Rocky Mountains in preparation for World War III scheduled for 5.55 pm on April 29, 1980, when it failed to materialise their revised calculations postponed it to May 7. Oh well, back to the computer.

Another who foresaw a nuclear explosion disintegrating the world at 12.15 pm 1962 was Wilma Bianco. To escape the coming catastrophe, her brother and forty followers started to build an ark two thousand metres up Mont Blanc. It is not stated whether the ark was supposed to float in space following the disappearance of planet Earth, but the non event was shrugged off with the remark, 'Anyone can make a mistake.'

Nostradamus, in one of his quatrains, agrees with the pyramidologists, forecasting the long awaited Armageddon—'plague, fire, famine and death by the military hand for the July 1999.'

Century X. Quatrain 72: 'In the year 1999, and seven months, from the sky will come the great King of Terror. He will bring back to life the great king of the Mongols, before and after the war reigns happily.'

However, this chronological preciseness is contradicted in Century VI. Quatrain 24. 'Mars and the sceptre will be in conjunction, a calamitous war under Cancer. A short time afterwards a new king will be anointed who will bring peace to the earth for a long time.'

The only time such a conjunction will occur is on June 21, 2002. Nostradamus also believed in hedging his bets, he also prophesied the end of the world when Easter falls on April 25. This has already occurred in 1666, 1734, 1886, 1943 and will again in 2038.
 
Of course, Nostradamus' 'predictions' mostly suffer from the prejudices of his translators, as his riddles are much more likely to refer to his own time than the distant future.




The English divine William Whiston announced the beginning of the end for October 13, 1736, but most of the population was still around twenty-five years later when, immediately following an earthquake, a William Bell predicted the end of the world for April 5. Mass hysteria followed and when nothing happened Bell was incarcerated in Bedlam, London's infamous mental asylum.
 
There is no doubt in my mind that to have faith one must also have infinite patience. William Miller, the palsied and stammering leader of the Second Adventists (now the Seventh Day Adventists) heard the voice of God urging him to tell the world of the second coming and the end of the world between March 21, 1843, and March 21, 1844. (Seems rather odd to me that God could not be a little more specific. Ah well, 'mysterious ways' you know.) Thousands believed Miller, particularly when a magnificent meteor shower reminded them of the prophecy in Revelation, that after 'the stars fell unto earth' the heavens would open up. The prophecy was given wide publicity and impetus in the newspapers Signs of the 7imes and The Midnight Cry.

As the last day approached thousands gathered on the hilltops only to go home next morning disappointed (or relieved). Undeterred, Miller postponed the coming to October 22, 1844. Hysteria grew, murder, suicide and panic prevailed, but once again the Messiah had a prior engagement. Evidently tired of waiting, Miller made his own way heavenward to meet his maker in 1849. He was succeeded by Charles Russell, who founded the Jehovah Witnesses, and further predictions were made with equal success. The movement flourished however under Joseph Rutherford, best known for his slogan, 'Millions now living shall never die.' A statement I'm sure millions long gone would hotly dispute if they could, and one worthy to be alongside Bob Hawke's 'no child will live in poverty by 1990'.

If by now you are wearing a wry smile and thinking how gullible they were in the old days to be taken in by such nonsense, rest assured that nothing has changed. In 1925 the Archangel Gabriel whispered in the ear of one Margaret Brown of Los Angeles that the world would end at midnight on Friday the 13th. A frustratingly vague prediction I might add, as Friday the 13th fell in the months of February, March and November of that year. This didn't deter Robert Reidt of Long Island, and he advertised in the same year for people to join him on high ground to await the sound of heavenly trumpets. When the bugles failed to sound, he blamed the newspaper reporters for scaring off the archangel with their flashbulbs. He tried again in 1932, after studying the book of Revelation, but after the second non-event went back to house painting.
 
House painting somehow seems to have a mysterious significance for psychics. Gerard Croiset, the psychic detective, was a house painter, and it was a house painter by the name of John Nash who predicted a tidal wave which he claimed would destroy the city of Adelaide on January 19, 1976. A carnival atmosphere prevailed when Don Dunstan, the then Premier of South Australia , joined with three thousand sightseers at the Glenelg jetty for the predicted event. Hotels did a roaring trade from those who would slake their thirst before the worst, and a couple of spoil-sports called on Mr Dunstan to repent.

Many who took the prediction seriously sold up their homes, and threats were made on the life of the prophet regardless of whether he proved to be right or wrong. After the non-event Mr Nash discreetly moved to Melbourne where, in an interview, he stood by his prediction saying that he would not return to Adelaide because there would be no Adelaide to return to. Obviously a man of conviction.

As floods and earthquakes figure monotonously in doomsday forecasts it is refreshing to hear something different. The Reverend Charles Long, of Pasadena, predicted a graphic end for us all at 5.33 pm on September 21, 1945. He said the world would be vaporised and its inhabitants turned into ectoplasm. The revelation came to him in 1938, when a ghostly hand wrote on a blackboard at the foot of his bed and a voice whispered in his ear. During the years which ensued he wrote a seventy thousand word tract on the coming destruction (based, we are left to assume, solely on a time and a date) which he posted to the world's leaders. While vaporisation was not to be civilisation's lot, an awful lot of converts were baptised by the reverend and his son in their rented auditorium in Pasadena. I've yet to figure out what a blackboard was doing at the foot of the reverend's bed.
 
Meanwhile back on the farm in Australia, the Theosophists were hard at work at Balmoral Beach, a harbour-side suburb of Sydney, preparing for yet another second coming. Land had been purchased on which to build an amphitheatre, the purpose of which was subject to rumour and speculation. Fuel was added to the flames with the arrival of Miss Enid Lorimer, a London actress, who said that the building would be used for a new type of outdoor pageant until needed for its 'great purpose'. On July 24 1924, an exotic ceremony was performed on the site by Charles Leadbeter, a prominent Anglo-Australian Theosophist, and prime mover in the enterprise. One year later the vision was manifest: an extensive three storied building structure towered over the beach, its twenty metre open stage above. By October 1924, the building was operational, Miss Lorimer's Amphitheatre players appropriately performing Henry van Dyke's 'The Other Wise Man.'
 
The auditorium could accommodate three thousand people and seats could be purchased for one hundred pounds in the front row, ten pounds in the back, or could be leased for twenty-five years. For one pound, one could have the names of those 'passed on' placed on a wall Roll of Honour.

The purpose of the amphitheatre was no longer hidden: it was to prepare the way for the expected world teacher (Messiah). The principle declaration being. 'We believe that a Great Teacher will soon appear in the world, and we wish so to live that we may be worthy to know him when he comes.' No enterprise expressed so well the apocalyptic zeal of those who attempted to seize the hour. The failure of the coming was a severe blow to them all, including Walter Marks, a politician who astonished parliament in the early 1920s when he prophesied the Second Coming through Sydney Heads in 1934. The amphitheatre was sold in 1931, the last vestige of the structure disappearing under the demolisher's hammer in 1951.

Ramtha, the 35,000 year old Atlantean warrior who has earned mega bucks for American channeler J. Z. Knight, also predicted a tidal wave to wipe out Sydney in 1990.
 


 
Occult visions and voices seemingly know no frontiers or language barriers and the track record for those supposedly possessing extraordinary faculties is no better than for the millennialists.
 
Edgar Cayce, the late and famous American seer and faith healer, goes for the end of civilisation in 2000 AD, but expects to be re-incarnated in Nebraska a century later. Among his failed predictions are the re-emergence of the mythical continent of Atlantis forecast for 1968-69, and the disappearance of large parts of California, Florida, Japan and Europe into the ocean following gigantic earthquakes.
 
Jeane Dixon, the American seer whose prolific output is unequalled anywhere in the world, even allowing for her vague and all encompassing predictions, has a success rate of one per cent, and that usually post-event.

To the chaos and mayhem following apocalyptic predictions we can add the work of Munoy Ferradas, a Chilean astronomer who panicked thousands into selling their homes, turning to drink, and committing murder and suicide when he predicted the end of all life on earth following a collision with a comet in August 1944. And seventeen members of the True Light Church of Christ who resigned their jobs which they thought they would no longer need after 1970, when, so the Church said, the world would end. Despite their premature retirement, the members still cling to the other doctrines of that church.

Readers may be tempted to say that the law of probability will ensure that eventually one of the prophets will get it right, but not through the medium of a vision, alien voices, astrology or pyramidology. The end of the world can be accurately predicted (give or take a few million years) by practical and reliable scientific methods.




There are many ways that the world, or at least life on it, could end, according to the more pragmatic forecasters, but most will allow you plenty of time to clean your teeth and pack your bags. Impact from an asteroid or comet, global pollution leading to overheating, overpopulation, a new ice age etc. However, there is no way to predict accurately when any of these might happen, nor with any confidence what the results might be. Even the best scientific predictions only talk about probabilities and averages, not definite times and effects—which as it should be.

At the higher end of the probability scale, threats to our existence are predominantly man-made. Nuclear or bacteriological warfare for instance, could drastically reduce or eliminate the world's population.
 
In view of the end of the 'cold war', a more insidious prospect is the long term effects of carbon dioxide being released into the earth's atmosphere. Climatologists speculate that the higher temperatures caused by the greenhouse effect could cause the icecaps to melt, raising the sea level, turning deserts into swamps and productive land into deserts. The resultant shift in populations and the loss of some of the world's biggest breadbaskets would exacerbate the already critical and precarious state of millions now living on a knife's edge.

Regardless of whether or not we contribute to our own demise, we are already faced with the threat of another approaching ice age, the fifth in a one-million-year cycle. No need to rush out and buy a fur coat just yet though, it's not due for an estimated 10,000 years. However, don't be too complacent, because before the ice age is upon us we could well be fried, peppered and mutated by cosmic rays. Those still around need not worry. No doubt some enterprising fellow will come up with a light-weight lead umbrella and overalls for protection.

One prediction for the end of the world on which all scientists agree is the self consumption and death of the Sun on which the Earth relies for life. It has been consuming its hydrogen fuel for five billion years and has an estimated life of another five billion. In the last billion it will heat up, evaporating the oceans and turning the planet into a red hot cinder. Perhaps attending a fire-walking seminar and getting some practise in isn't such a waste of money after all.

There is a suggestion by American scientists that life on Earth is wiped out every twenty-six million years by a barrage of comets triggered by an as yet undiscovered star which orbits the centre of the Milky Way. This star is postulated as a companion star to the Sun. The suggestion is that this star, at some part of its orbit round the Sun, causes comets in the dust cloud to come out of orbit and enter the inner Solar System. They theorise, after studying fossils, rare metals and ancient impact craters, that it could account for the disappearance of the dinosaurs sixty-five million years ago. Don't hold your breath though, the next barrage isn't due for another fifteen million years.

In his book A Choice of Catastrophes, the late Isaac Asimov lists five classes of categories for the possible end of the world and/or civilisation. They range from the possible through the probable to the inevitable, and Asimov concludes that the catastrophes to which we are most vulnerable are those created by mankind, and which can, with rational and humane behaviour, be avoided.
 


 
A fascinating book, Impossible Possibilities, by Louis Pauels and Jacques Bergier, postulates many hypotheses on the future. First published in 1968, translated from the German in 1971, and published in England in 1974, it is interesting to read twenty-three years later, to see just how close some of the predictions came.

In the book much reliance appears to have been attached to the prognostications of Harry Stine, a rocket specialist and Science Fiction author in the late 1950s, and the data extracted from the exponential curves calculated by him as functions of time and the duration of life, particularly the conclusion that the life of a child born in the year 2000 could be prolonged for several centuries or even a millennium. Similarly, the works of Andre de Cayeaux and Francois Mayer of France showing the acceleration of history.

Whilst I have little doubt that discovery begets discovery and progress begets progress, I dispute that the future can be plotted with any accuracy on a chart using those criteria, as the inhibiting factors do not seem to have been taken into account. The necessity and expediency of development, invention and innovation are preclusive, and the rate of acceleration or retardation of those factors is further exacerbated by commercial, financial and political considerations and interests. Thus we have, say in the field of parapsychology, an accelerated interest and research into telepathy and its potential in the space age evident in the former USSR where hypnosis and telepathy are regarded as scientific facts. This leads Bergier to conclude that 'by 1984 telepathic communication between the Earth and the Moon will have been established, (and) nobody will still doubt the reality of parapsychology.' Research on this subject in the former USSR dates back to the turn of the century, and in 1996, telepathy still remains unproven.

A retarded interest is evident in the prediction which sees 'the electric car as the vehicle of the 1980s, one programmed by a punch card and which drives itself.' The concept is far from new and with the advent of computerised equipment, automatic guidance systems and radar braking, programmed electro-cars are a practical proposition. The change-over however, visualised by the writer to take place by 1984, is no closer to reality almost a century after the first electric car was built. The author also foresaw that by 1987, 'all electrical appliances would be independent of the plug.' this apparently based on battery operated appliances making their appearance in the 1960s. Further, 'the new appliances will make their own electricity out of fuel by means of small converters or fuel elements, or contain a built-in rechargeable cadmium-nickel accumulator.' The latter has seen a certain degree of fulfilment due to research and development in miniaturisation techniques, but a dramatic breakthrough in electrical storage capacity is still in the future. Fuel elements are still not a practical or commercial proposition, and while re-chargeable batteries are commonplace, their use in large domestic applications is still not economically viable.

Oddly enough, the automation of factories manned entirely by robots in the 1980s, was not postulated, and neither were the computer revolution, the  internet or widespread use of mobile phones.

Finally, a new religion founded by an Indonesian Pak Subud in the 1950s, was predicted to spread all over the world. Nearly fifty years later it only has a world-wide membership of twelve thousand.




Somewhere along the line I said that the law of probability would inevitably ensure a hit. This was true of one prediction by Bergier who forecast 'the struggle between Communism and Capitalism will be over in 1984', well not quite, but credit where credit is due, he was close.
 
Predicting the future, whether it be by arcane or pragmatic means, is fraught with disillusionment. At best, a prophet has a severely restricted chance of success, but if one's predictions are couched in sufficiently vague terms and restricted to those events likely to occur and re-occur, then the chance of success is greatly enhanced.




The role that probability plays in the future telling game cannot be overstated. Cloaked in non-specific, vague and ambiguous wording it becomes the nucleus for successful predicting. Every day we use words such as, chance, likelihood, and possibly, with a general understanding of what we mean, but without precise definition. If we toss a coin, the chance, likelihood or possibility of it falling heads or tails is fifty-fifty for each throw, considered independently of other throws past or future. Probability therefore, becomes the expected occurrence of an event, the frequency of which has been measured over a given number of occurrences or period of time. This is confirmed by Bernoulli's theorem, known as the Law of Large Numbers, which states that observed events over a period or series of trials will approach fixed limits as the number increases. Let's see how this applies to predicting future events, the results of which are often claimed as being obtained by clairvoyant means.

Take for example the following hypothetical prediction:

'A tragic aircraft disaster in 1993 will result in over one hundred deaths.' After the tragedy, the psychic claims (assuming it was placed on record) that he foresaw the event in a vision or as a manifestation of his powers.
Before we examine the prediction to see what part probability plays, let me ask a question. How many major aircraft disasters can you recall happening over the past ten years? Three, half-a-dozen, ten maybe? There were forty. People's memories are short. Look at the following statistics:

Between 1953 and 1963 there were thirteen major aircraft crashes with three accident free years. The period 1964 to 1973 saw twenty-four major disasters and only one year was accident free. Between 1974 and 1983 there were thirty-two crashes, and in the last decade forty. There has been no year free of accidents since 1965. Thus over the past thirty years the world has averaged a major airline disaster every fourteen weeks.

From these and other airline statistics one can conclude that given larger aircraft, flying more kilometres, notwithstanding stringent safety measures, the number of accidents will also increase. It should be obvious then, that if a clairvoyant predicts a major aircraft disaster in which hundreds of people will die but is not specific about the time and place, the laws of probability will ensure that the prediction will come to pass. In passing, I should mention that if one also includes light planes and helicopters in the statistics it would almost be impossible to miss: They average one every ten days. On some occasions there have been as many as three in one week.

The same reasoning applies to natural disasters. In the past one hundred years there have been over one hundred great fires and explosions; countless tornadoes, hurricanes, cyclones, floods, avalanches and tidal waves, and thirty major earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. A major natural disaster nearly every six months. It should be borne in mind that the definition of a major disaster is one in which a great many people, as many as two hundred thousand, have died on a single occasion. The average increases dramatically when the less severe are included.

Other predictions almost with a guarantee of success are the death of a film star, assassinations and murders of prominent people, bus, train and shipping accidents, fires, crimes, frauds and scandals. If you have access to a Whitaker's Almanac (an accurate reference book published annually) in your local library, a perusal will show that not a single week goes by without a couple of major tragedies or newsworthy events of some magnitude somewhere in the world.

The frequency with which certain events occur, whether they be natural catastrophes, man made disasters, accidents or crimes, is quite astonishing, usually making the headlines one day and forgotten the next.

Using the examples given, a clairvoyant (or anyone for that matter), could safely predict for any one year two major aircraft crashes, at least one catastrophic earthquake, a cyclone or a flood with great loss of life, a couple of major crimes and scandals, a train crash, two bus accidents, the death of two film stars and an outbreak of disease. The odds are that he would be ninety-nine per cent correct—providing he was not too specific with times, dates and places. 'Seeing' the future is not the province of clairvoyants using extraordinary powers, but the use of information freely available to all, commonsense, astuteness and a little-bit of luck.

In 1986, I put theory into practise by entering a contest to find England's best psychic.

The London Sun newspaper ran a contest with a prize of five hundred pounds to find Britain's top psychic. The contest called for six predictions covering the six months commencing September 3; the results to be announced in March.
 
In London on vacation at the time, I submitted six predictions based on probability, as detailed in the table below.

On February 20, 1987, (now back in Australia), I wrote to the organisers of the contest claiming six hits. Excusing the two near misses, (marked with an asterisk), using the usual psychic's ploy of making the event fit the prediction after the event.
 
The first 'near miss' I claimed to have had in a vision—just rice paddies, and bodies floating in flood-waters; it could have been one of many Asian countries. I just guessed wrong. The second disaster I claimed was averted by the combined efforts of meditators for peace and tranquility around the world.

Believed or not, I could not fail to be credited with at least four hits—or so I thought.

Neither my claim nor a follow-up letter were acknowledged, and it was through the British Skeptic's group that I finally found out the results.

The winner was announced in the Sun on February 23, 1987, with six correct forecasts, and two others were named with three correct forecasts each.

My suspicions were raised that the protocol and ethics involved were not above reproach. First, the newspaper had stated that there were many hundreds of entries and that they were locked away in a strongbox in a London bank vault. As the Sun made no mention about monitoring the entries on a daily basis, I assume that they were not.

The winner, on being told that she had won, said, 'I did not keep a record of my predictions, but I remember some and as they began to come true I thought I might come second or third.' She was not confident, and there was no way of verifying the exact wording of the predictions. The paper's version of them had to be accepted.

The indisputable fact that I had four correct forecasts, whereas the runners-up had only three, would seem to indicate that the entries were not carefully scrutinised, or indeed checked at all. Further, the winner's predictions were not as specific as mine—they were vaguely spread over the six months, whereas some of mine were accurate to within a day or two. Naturally, the judges decision was final and no correspondence was entered into.
 
Predictions, more often than not, tend to be of an apocalyptical nature—disasters, the end of the world, famine and floods, and they usually end by offering salvation for those who repent. The obvious religious dogma running through them can be seen in the following typical examples.
 
Towards the end of 1991, I received a newspaper clipping from a reader in the form of an advertisement by Fatima International, an organisation dedicated to propagating the myths of Fatima, Medjugorje and other Catholic shrines where the Blessed Virgin Mary has supposedly been seen.

It was a list of predictions for 1992, based on Biblical Prophecy and authentic revelation. They were composed by Robert Bergin who specialises in Biblical prophecies, paid for and published by Fatima International as a service to the people. Now into 1997, with a latitude of some four years for error, it is interesting once again to note the futility of trying to read into the bible that which is not there. The following is a prëcis of the predictions. My comments are in parentheses.
 
1. During 1992, the United States will jettison its constitulion as unworkable.

2. American Christians of all denominations will unite to formulate a specifically Christian Constitution.

3. This will happen just as a mortal threat to America is developing in Europe.
(1 and 2 did not come to pass, and with the break-up of Communism what has been a mortal threat for forty years dissolved overnight.)

4. During 1992, an entire new family of ruthless totalitarian regimes will dominate most, if not all the countries of Eastern Europe, namely the former Soviet republics and the former Warsaw pact countries.
(Taking into consideration past historical events one can make a fairly safe prediction along these lines based on probability. Most countries whose national boundaries encompass diverse ethnic, religious or national groups are, or were, bound and held together by a central control—colonies by foreign rulers, countries occupied by others, incompatible cultures forced to live together and so on. Once the yoke of central control is lifted a struggle for freedom, independence, autonomy and control ensues. The pattern is consistent and rarely peaceful—most of the African colonies, Yugoslavia and Indo-China are examples. Why should the break-up of the Soviet Union be singled out as exceptional? In many instances the old master is replaced by a totalitarian government constituted of those with the most muscle or supported by their previous master's vested business interests. Exceptions to Bergin's prediction are the Baltic States, Czechoslovakia and Poland, the latter close to being accepted as a member of  NA TO .)

5. The stage will be set for the rise of a new Nazi empire ... this empire will quickly embrace many countries in Western Europe, notably Germany, France and the Scandinavian countries. (Apart from the odd neo-Nazi skirmish, more of a protest against the influx of refugees rather than a rising spectre of the third Reich, I don't hold out much hope for that one.)
 
6. Israel, surrounded by Arab hatred, will be under extreme pressure to destroy its enemies by means of its nuclear missiles.
(Israel showed extreme forbearance during the Gulf war when it had a legitimate excuse to retaliate. Since then notable advances have been made by both Jews and Arabs to secure an agreement under which all can peacefully co-exist.)

7. Australia will follow America's example and adopt a specifically Christian Constitution.
(As America has yet to set the example we don't have one to follow.)

8. The tremendous global upheaval, beginning in 1992, will culminate in the fulfilment of the Apocalyptic prophecies about the end times.

9. A massive worldwide confrontation between good and evil is foreshadowed in many of the prophecies of the Old Testament. It is to come at the end of the ages.

None out of nine Robert, good show old man. After 6000 years the prophets still haven't scored a hit, and I suggest that those who make a living out of trying to scare the living daylights out of people had better watch out when the time does come—if there is a kind, compassionate and just God they might just be the ones who end up stoking the fires!

A much higher authority than Bergin doesn't seem to have had much success either.
 
Along with other junk mail I periodically receive a newsletter from Fatima International. The tracts are litanies of dire predictions for those who do not repent, and offer salvation only to those who attend church regularly, play with their rosary beads and chant Hail Marys.

Handed out with one issue was a copy of 'A Pope's Predictions to the Year 2000'. This was an excellent example of how predictions based on statistics and the laws of probability can be used. One distinct aspect that should be noted and which I haven't previously mentioned is 'privileged information', that is, information of use to the prognosticator and unlikely to be available to the general public. Jeane Dixon, who according to her biographer has a wide range of diplomatic and social contacts, makes good use of privileged information to enhance her accuracy, so when the spiritual leader of some five hundred million Catholics claims that the information on which his predictions are based came from personal conversations with Jesus Christ and the Madonna, one would expect them to have some credence.

The hand-written predictions were found in a dusty leather-bound diary by a Vatican cleaning woman while sorting through a box in a little used storage room. The notes it is claimed, belonged to Pope John XXIII. (Born 1881, he was Pope from 1958 to 1963. Although not elected until the twelfth ballot, clearly a compromise candidate, he turned out at the age of seventy-seven to be one of the most popular popes of all time. Formal proceedings have since been instituted that could lead to his canonisation, but based on his record, I doubt that it will be patron saint of the seers!)
 
Evidently the Italian Sadie, (possibly a graduate of the Freedom University in Florida with a major in the recognition of important religious artefacts) was unaware that Rupert Murdoch pays handsomely for posthumous diaries, whether genuine or not, and having spent her coffee break evaluating the find handed it over to the Rev. Guiseppe D'Angelo, age seventy-three, who decided to release some of the diary entries made between February 1959 and April 1963.

The scrawled messages reveal a frightened and excited pontiff who decided to keep his meetings with Christ and the Madonna a secret.
 
Italian experts (unnamed) say that the diary is one hundred per cent authentic and they urge the people to prepare themselves for even leaner times before the New Beginning next century. (Has a familiar ring?)

According to the Rev D'Angelo, the diary records that Christ and the Holy Mother visited Pope John nine times between February 12, 1959 and July 2, 1962, and revealed a host of natural and man-made disasters about to descend upon the world over the next eight years, including the assassination of a great leader, wars, powerful winds and waves, violent earthquakes, famine. Finally, an atomic war which would reduce the Earth to 'a charred spinning rock'. However, that nightmare will be followed by a lengthy period of harmony—a  beautiful serene Heaven on Earth.
 
Some thirty years have elapsed since the predictions were claimed to have been made and there has been no change in the frequency of wars, disasters and assassinations which preceded or followed them. (See table below)
 
While I seem to recall reading similar apocalyptic forecasts in a much older book than the pope's diary, the one that really intrigued me read as follows: 'Heavenly visitors will arrive in flaming chariots of steel on June 5, 1995'. (JC and the BVM forgot to say where, and if was on the TV news I must have missed it! MUFON and BUFORA should note however, and begin their task of assisting the clean-up and repair of the environment and the crippled countries.
 
The forecast continued ... 'Many will fear these odd- looking beings, but they come in peace and will, with God's guidance, transform Earth from a charred spinning rock to a lush oasis in space. The survivors will flourish in a world without war, disease or hatred ... by 1988 (?) we will have shared in the visitors' advanced knowledge, conquered disease, will live biblical ages, will have the power of resurrection and the dead will rise. Finally, on December 25, 2000, millions will witness the sensational appearance of a messiah in the sky over New York'.
 
Well there you have it folks, although we missed out on the promised paradise, take heart, we can still look forward to the UFOs, ETs and the second coming, I sincerely hope that notwithstanding the intervening disasters that were forecast, we will all still be around to wonder what profiteth a man who shall forfeit his sanity to gain a few souls!

The following table shows events* likely to occur in any given eight year period.

Although the 1969 famine in China could be claimed as a hit by the late pope, it is not without precedent as a disaster. In the 14th century Bubonic plague took an estimated seventy-five million lives; the Irish potato famine from 1846 to 1851 one and one-half million; famine in China decimated the population by over nine million in 1877-78; over twenty-nine million died in the influenza epidemic of 1918, and an estimated five million died in the post World-War I famine in the USSR between 1920 and 1921.

Some who presume to be able to change the future by appealing to a greater power don't appear to have much success. Fr. Rafael Calonia, for example, who offered mass in the fields at the foot of the Mayon volcano in the Philippines, to seek divine intervention in turning away any further manifestations of the volcano's wrath. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, which was monitoring the volcano, reported one hundred and fifty-four tremors, and the mountain exploded seven times blowing super-heated ash six kilometres high, burying several villages.

It is not reported whether or not Fr. Calonia had sufficient faith to hang around to see the results of his invocation!

From:  Edwards, H.  1997 A Skeptic's Casebook, Australian Skeptics Inc.


Prophets For Profit  Part 2  in Investigator #226

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