B Stett
(Investigator 112, 2007 January)
Islam may soon catch up to and then overtake Christianity.
This can be calculated from statistics given in the two editions of the TOP 10 OF EVERYTHING (1989; 2005)
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| 1 | Christianity |
1644
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Christianity |
2160
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| 2 | Islam |
860
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Islam |
1342
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| 3 | Hinduism |
656
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Hinduism |
877
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| 4 | Buddhism |
310
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Agnosticism |
772
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| 5 | Judaism |
18.1
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Chinese folk-religions |
407
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| 6 | Sikkism |
16.6
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Buddhism |
382
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| 7 | Confucianism |
5.9
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Ethnic Religions |
258
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| 8 | Bahaísm |
4.63
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Atheism |
152
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| 9 | Jainism |
3.46
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New Religions |
109
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| 10 | Shintoism |
3.40
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Sikkism |
25.7
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Annual % Increase 1989-2005 |
| 1 | Christianity |
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| 2 | Islam |
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| 3 | Hinduism |
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| 4 | Buddhism |
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Of the top four religions for 1989 Islam is growing fastest – 2.8% per year.
Muslim populations in North Africa and the Middle East have high birth rates and high proportions of young people. Europeans, including Christians, are in contrast an aging population. However, the Christian problem in Europe is offset somewhat by rapid growth in China, South America, the Philippines and Africa.
Therefore, let us not worry about factors that might alter future growth rates and simply project what we have.
When will Islam overtake Christianity?
The answer is in 44 years.
The figures in the 2005 edition of The Top 10 are actually claimed to apply to 2006.
If the calculated growth rates continue, then in 2050 (i.e. 2006+44) Christians and Muslims will reach numerical equality.
Christians and Muslims will both then number about 4570 million.
Projecting the Hindu figures to 2050 gives 1950 million Hindus.
The projections for just these three groups exceed the official estimated world population for 2050. Something therefore has to give. At least some growth rates have to slow down.
However, the simple answer to WHEN WILL ISLAM OVERTAKE CHRISTIANITY? is 2050.
REFERENCES:
Ash, R The Top 10 of Everything, 1989, p. 194; 2005 p. 79.
http://ed5015.tripod.com/