HUMAN
NUMBERS:
HOW
MANY OF US HAVE THERE
BEEN?
B S
(Investigator 34, 1994
January)
WOULD
THERE BE ENOUGH ROOM?
How many people have lived on Earth? This question is important to some
Christian
and pseudo Christian groups who believe that God will resurrect most of
those who have died.
Some groups
believe
that
all the resurrected people
will actually live on Earth, and others believe that the dead will
return
to Earth only briefly for judgment before being assigned to Heaven or
Hell.
Whether there
is going
to
be enough room
for everyone, already troubled some people over a century ago. The
following,
for example, appeared in a Californian paper probably in the 1870s:
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DENSITY OF POPULATION
"In
the following
computation it is assumed
that the earth was created 6,000 years ago, and that the average
population
since the creation has been the same population of the present time,
and
the average duration of life 33 years.
A person in a
standing position occupies
l 2/3 square feet of space. A person in a sitting position
occupies
3 1/3 square feet of space.
The present
population of the earth
(1,424,000,000), could stand on an area of 86 square miles; an area
about
twice that of the city of San Francisco; and that number of persons
could
be seated on an area of 171 square miles; an area about 2 5/8 that of
the
District of Columbia.
The area of the
United States is 3,603,884
square miles. Within its boundaries there is standing room for
60,282,311,822,360
persons; a number equal to the population of 1,396,991 years, in time
nearly
233 times the age of the earth." (Statistician)
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SOME
ESTIMATES
Estimates of
the total
number of people to
have lived vary:
One extreme is
Radford
(1990) who wrote:
"There are,
it is
sometimes argued, more
people alive today than have lived during all previous human history."
The
opposite
extreme
might be represented
by Rumble & Carty. (c.l948) These two Catholic priests were
criticising
the Russellite belief that almost all the dead will live again on
Earth.
They argued:
"Even on the
basis
of
6,000 years of history
wrongly held by Russell, this would mean about 250 millions millions of
people on this earth simultaneously, covering it so thickly that
not all would he able to sitdown together."
Deevey
(1960)
estimated all humans to
have totalled 110 billion. These include 36 billion paleolithic (about
1 million years ago to 25,000 years ago) hunters and gatherers; another
30 billion until the invention of agriculture; and the rest until 1960.
In his book
GENETICS
OF
THE EVOLTIONARY PROCESS
(1970) geneticist Theodore Dobzhansky gave total human numbers as:
600,000
B.C.
to 6000
B.C. 12,000
million
6000 B.C. to 1650
A.D. 42,000 million
1650 A.D. to 1962
A.D.
23,000 million
The GUINNESS
BOOK OF RECORDS for 1983 said: "It is estimated that
75,000,000,000 humans
have been born and died in the last 600,000 years."
The 1993 GUINNESS
BOOK OF RECORDS
said:
"Using
estimates
made by
the French demographer
J.N. Biraben and others, A.R. Thatcher, a former director of the Office
of Population Censuses and Surveys, has calculated that the number of
people who died between 40,000 BC and AD 1990 was nearly 60,000 million. This
estimate implies that the current world population is about
one
eleventh
of those who have ever lived."
Whatever
calculation
we make will obviously
be greatly influenced by how old we presume humankind to be and by
whether
we try to include every baby who died at birth or only persons who
survived
infancy.
ONLY
TWENTY BILLION?
One major sect
teaches:
"A very
liberal
estimate
of the number
of persons that have ever lived on the earth is twenty billion
(20,000,000,000).
Many students of the subject calculate that not nearly
so many have
lived."
(Aid
to Bible
Understanding 1971 p. 1400; Insight On The Scriptures 1988
Volume 2
p. 792)
When this
seemingly
objective statement
says "many students of the subject" it probably refers to sect members.
This conclusion follows from the fact that the publications of the
sect,
but very few other sources, have estimates of total human numbers even
as low as 20 billion. For example:
| REFERENCE |
ESTIMATE |
| The
Object and
Manner of our Lord's Return
1877 p. 19 |
120
billion |
| The
Battle of
Armageddon 1897 p. 647 |
50
" |
| The
New Creation
1904 p. 640 |
50
" |
| I.S.B.A.
Convention
Report 1913 p. 309 |
20
" |
| The
Finished
Mystery 1917 p. 312 |
20
" |
| The
Harp of God
1921 p. 345 |
21.7 " |
| The
Way to Paradise
1924 p. 209 |
20
" |
| The
Watchtower 1929
September 1 p. 269 |
20
" |
|
"
"
" October 1 p. 299 |
20
" |
| The
Meek Shall
Inherit The Earth 1945 |
20+ " |
| True
Peace and
Security 1973 p.108 |
14
" |
Page 209 of
THE WAY TO
PARADISE (1924)
on
Staten Island (a
small island
about six by thirteen miles in New York harbor); and all the people who
have ever lived on earth could be placed in Texas alone, and each
person
have nearly fourteen feet square in which to walk around. Figure it out
for yourselves. It is very doubtful if there have ever live as many as
20,000,000,000 people born on the earth. But be very liberal, and count
them as 40,000,000,000. Texas is said to have an area of 262,398 square
miles which, less the 3,498 square miles of water surface, would leave
258,900 square miles of land surface. Each square mile has 640 acres.
Each
acre has 43,560 square feet. Texas would therefore have
7,217,717,760,000
square feet. Divide this by 40,000,000,000, and we have 180 square
feet,
or over l3 feet square. Each person would have room enough for a
table all to himself and for waiters to serve him.
Will there be enough to eat? Answer again in Ezekiel 34:27; 36:29,
30, and many others.
But another question will occur to some: If there is no change in the
grave,will not all those who died as rascals and bad characters come
back
the same, and how will Christ be able to control them? Answer again: "When
thy judgments are in the earth, the inhabitants of the world
will
learn righteousness." (Isaiah 26:9) Sometimes it is well to take
an
emetic before one can enjoy a meal. So the Lord has provided some such
emetics for had canes of wilful indigestion. They will then be in
conditioned
to eat |
It is
strange
that the estimates of the sect
show a downward trend as time passes even though babies are still being
born. It's obvious, however, where the present-day leaders of the sect
get their number of 20 billion from!
TWENTIETH
CENTURY
Let's try to
calculate
approximately the
number of people to have lived on this planet since 2,000 BC. I'll
start
with the 20th century.
In the 1980s
about 180
million were born
each year.
In the
1970s about
150
million were born
every year.
In the
1960s 120
million each year.
1950s –100
million
yearly.
1940s – 90
million "
1930s – 80
million "
1920s – 70
million "
And 1900 to
1920 about
50
million were born
each year. These figures are all approximate but are accurate enough
for
our purpose.
Of course the
world
population did not increase
by these amounts, because people were also dying.
By adding up
these
figures
for each decade
of the 20th century the total for the 20th
century
until 1990 is approximately 9,000 million.
19th
18th
and 17th CENTURIES
I'm going to
simplify
the
calculation for
centuries prior to the 20th century. I'll do this by
estimating
the mid-century world population and multiplying by the number of
generations
in that century. In the 19th century we can assume that the
average life span was about 33 years. This amounts to 3 generations for
the19th century. The mid-19th-century world population was
about
1,150 million. The estimate for the entire century therefore comes to
1,150
million x 3 = 3,450 million.
Assuming 4
generations
in
the18th century – that is average life spans of 25 years – and a mid
century world population
of 750 million we get a total for the 18th century of 750
million
x 4 = 3,000 million.
In the 17th
century medical technology
was primitive and human life spans averaged perhaps 20 years. This was
mainly due to high infant mortality. Therefore I'll assume 5
"generations"
per century and a mid century world population of 550 million. The
total
number of humans for the 17th century is therefore 550 x 5 =
2,750 million.
FROM
1
A.D to 1600 A.D.
I'm going to
simplify
things further now.
The world population when Jesus lived was about 200 million. In 1000
A.D.
humans numbered about 270 million and in 1600 A.D. about 500 million.
I'll assume an
average
of
250 million for
the whole 16-century period.
It's been
estimated
that
in the Roman Empire
the average life was only 12-15 years long. Again this was because of
the
high mortality in childhood. This would amount to 7 or 8 "generations"
per century. I'll use the number 7.
The total
humans for
the
first 16 centuries
after the birth of Christ comes to 250 million x 7 x 16 = 28,000,000
million.
FROM
2000 B.C. to 1 B.C.
The book ATLAS
OF
WORLD
POPULATION (1978)
gives world populations of:
2000
B.C. 27
million people worldwide
1000 B.C.
50
"
"
" "
500 B.C. 100
"
"
"
"
200 B.C. 150
"
"
"
"
I'll
assume an average
of 80 million for
the entire 20-century period. And I'll assume about 6 "generations" per
century, that is average life spans of 100/6 = 17 years.
The total for
this
2,000
year period comes
to 80 million x 6 x 20 = 9,600 million.
FINAL
TOTAL
I won't go any
further
back than 2,000 B.C.
The following table summarises the figures I've provided:
| TIME
PERIOD |
TOTAL
HUMANS BORN |
| 2000
B.C. to 1
B.C. |
9,600
million |
| 1
A.D. to 1600
A.D |
28,000
" |
| 1601
to
1700
" |
2,750
" |
1701
to
1800
"
|
3,000
" |
| 1801
to
1900
" |
3,450
" |
1901
to
1990
"
|
9,000
" |
The total
number of humans to have
lived
since 2000 B.C. comes to 56 billion. This would include all those who
died
in infancy. This number is not exact because the subtotals it is based
on included quite a few approximations and assumptions.
CONCLUSIONS
The sectarian
figure
of 20
billion is absurdly
small. Notice that this sectarian estimate remained the same from 1924
to 1988. Apparently the sect is implying that nobody had any babies for
64 years – 1924 to 1988. In fact about 5,500 million babies were born
during
that period.
My total of 56
billion
since 2000 B.C. could
easily fit into a comparatively small area. They could all fit into the
state of Texas and enjoy 123 square metres of space each. Or they could
all fit into Australia's smallest state [Tasmania] with about 12 square
metres of
space per person.
Religions that
believe
in
the resurrection
of almost everyone back to this Earth are therefore not yet refuted if
we base our arguments solely on population estimates and land areas.
However, many
biologists
and other experts
believe that the present world population of 5,400 million is already
too
great for planet Earth to sustain indefinitely. This belief is based on
statistics for deforestation, land desertification, soil erosion,
environmental
pollution, and the rates of exploitation of mineral resources.
Others,
however, argue
differently. For example:
"There is
plenty of
room
for improvement
in present farming practice. More land could be brought under
cultivation
if a better distribution of water could be arranged. More efficient
basic
crops can be grown and used less wastefully. Other sources of energy,
notably
atomic energy, can be fed back into food production to
supplement
the sun's rays. None of these measures is more than palliative,
however;
none promises so much as a 10-fold increase in efficiency; worse none
is
likely to be achieved at a pace equivalent to the present rate of
doubling
of the world's Population. A 10-fold, even 20-fold, increase can be
tolerated,
perhaps, but the standard of living seems certain to be lower
than
today's." (Deevey 1960)
Current
discoveries in
environmentally
safe methods of pest-control and in genetic engineering of
plants
to make them disease-resistant and/or able to grow in marginal areas
might
make Deevey's hypothetical 20-fold increase even more optimistic.
Nevertheless,
religions
that teach that everyone,
or almost everyone, will be resurrected and then live permanently on
planet
Earth are on the borderline of refutation. This follows from comparing
estimates of how many people planet Earth can sustain with calculations
of how many people have been born.
WORLD
POPULATION
ESTIMATES
IN MILLIONS
| 2000 BC |
30 |
1500 |
450 |
1930 |
2,070 |
| 1000 |
50 |
1600 |
500 |
1940 |
2,300 |
| 500 |
100 |
1650 |
550 |
1950 |
2,500 |
| 200 |
150 |
1700 |
650 |
1960 |
3,000 |
|
|
1750 |
750 |
1970 |
3,650 |
| 1 AD |
200 |
1800 |
900 |
1980 |
4,400 |
| 500 |
200 |
1850 |
1,150 |
1990 |
5,200 |
| 1000 |
270 |
1900 |
1,630 |
2000 |
6,000 |
| 1250 |
400 |
1920 |
1,860 |
2010 |
7,000 |
REFERENCES:
Deevey, Jr. E S 1960
The
Human Populations,
Scientific American; September
Dobzhansky, T 1970
Genetics of the Evolutionary
Process; Columbia University Press, p. 311
Kirchner, W 1960
Western Civilization to
1500, Barnes & Noble
McEvedy, C and
Jones, R. 1978 Atlas of World
Population History, Penguin
McFarlan, D
(Editor)
1991 The Guinness Book
of Records 1992, Guinness Publishing, p. 78
McWhirter, N &
R
(Editors & compilers)
The Guinness Book of Records 1983 Edition, Guinness Superlatives Ltd.
p.
203
Radford, T. 1990
The
Crisis of Life on Earth,
Thorsons, p. 213
(Fathers) Rumble
& Carty 1948(?) The
Jehovah's Witnesses, Radio Replies Press Society
Van Amburgh, W E
1924 The Way to Paradise,
ISBA.
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