Two items appear below:

1    Defection and Transfusion      B S
2    Joining JWs Loses Urgency    F R



DEFECTION AND TRANSFUSION

(Investigator 71, 2000 March)

B S
The average yearly defection rate from the Jehovah’s Witness sect is close to 2%. This is estimated from the following table:


YEAR
PUBLISHERS (Average)
 BAPTISMS DEFECTION % of
Publishers
         
1955 570,700 63,600 13,100 2.3
1960 851,000 69,000 13,000 1.5
1965 1,034,000 64,400 22,100 2.1
1966 1,059,000 58,900 23,300 2.2
1967 1,094,000 75,000 29,100 2.7
1968 1,156,000 82,800 9,200 0.8
1969 1,257,000 121,000 7,400 0.6
1970 1,384,000 164,000 23,200 1.7
1971 1,510,000 150,000 8,900 0.6
1972 1,596,000 163,000 61,000 3.8
1973 1,657,000 194,000 116,400 7.0
1974 1,881,000 298,000 55,200 2.9
1975 2,062,000 295,000 93,400 4.5
1976 2,139,000 197,000 98,600 4.6
1977 2,117,000 124,000 124,800 5.9
1978 2,087,000 95,000 104,100 5.0
1979 2,097,000 114,000 83,000 4.0
1980 2,175,000 114,000 14,300 0.7
1981 2,247,000 120,000 25,500 1.1
1982 2,347,000 139,000 15,500 0.7
1983 2,502,000 162,000 -18,000 -0.7
1984 2,680,000 179,000 -25,800 -1.0
1985 2,865,000 190,000 -23,700 -0.8
1986 3,063,000 226,000 -2,600 -0.1
1987 3,238,000 231,000 23,600 0.7
1988 3,431,000 239,000 11,700 0.3
1989 3,625,000 264,000 33,800 0.9
1990 3,846,000 302,000 42,500 1.1
1991 4,072,000 301,000 34,300 0.8
1992 4,290,000 301,000 40,100 0.9
1993 4,484,000 296,000 57,000 1.3
1994 4,695,000 315,000 57,000 1.2
1995 4,950,000 338,000 33,500 0.7
1996 5,167,000 367,000 97,300 1.9
1997 5,353,000 376,000 136,400 2.5
1998 5,544,000 316,000 69,600 1.3
1999 5,654,000 323,000 157,000 2.8


"Publishers" is the monthly average number of JWs going door to door.
Publisher/baptism statistics are from The Watchtowers of January 1.

Defection is estimated by the formula:

Defection = Baptisms – Increase – Deaths
Deaths are estimated at 1% of publishers. 

For example:

Defection in 1998  =  316,000 - (5,544,000 - 5,353,000) – 1% of 5,544,000

                        = 316,000 - 191,000 - 55,440

                        = 69,600

The negative defection rate in the 1980s suggests:

1.    Previous defectors were returning in anticipation of Armageddon 70 years after 1914/1915;
2.    Rapid increases in unbaptized publishers distorted calculations based on baptism figures.
The chart suggests the annual average loss to the JW sect by defection is near 2%.

If the average age of converts is 20 to 25, implying life expectancies of 40 more years, then the proportion of JWs who stay in the sect until death is 0.9840 = 0.45  (= 45%)

Therefore, over half the JW sect members will eventually leave the sect!

This has implications for the anti-blood-transfusion doctrine.

Ex-members usually change their mind about the anti-blood-transfusion doctrine! The Jehu case of 1959/1960 in NSW led to changes in Australian law when parents rejected blood for their baby and it died. The father left the sect some years later.

The head of the JW Australian Branch Office at the time of the Jehu trial, Douglas Held, addressed a crowd outside the courtroom as follows:

"Nowhere else in the world has any country adopted this attitude. We have had many children die as a result of our belief and nobody has ever been charged with manslaughter before." (Melbourne Truth 1960 April 2)

A "specialist in babies diseases" confirmed that: "Other Jehovah Babies Have Died". (The Sun, 1960, March 25 p. 2)

Nowadays the law protects JW children, and doctors can give blood by court order. JW adults, however, and sometimes teenagers are allowed to reject blood transfusion and risk death. For example an 18-year-old died last year in Queensland:

"A teenage Jehovah’s Witness critically injured in a car crash has died without allowing a possible life-saving blood transfusion." (Sunday Herald Sun 1999 June 13 p. 35)

The defection estimates above suggest that about half of all JWs who currently oppose blood transfusions will eventually leave the sect and change their minds!

Furthermore, about half of the thousands of JWs who have needlessly died by rejecting needed blood would eventually have left the sect had they lived!





JOINING THE JWs LOSES URGENCY

Frank Russo

(Investigator 72, 2000 May)


The JWs are having problems keeping their members and gaining new converts as the chart in Investigator 71 suggests.

Baptisms for the four years 1996-1999 totalled 1,382,000 but the door-to-door publishers rose only 704,000.

Even more indicative of problems is the annual Memorial of Christ's death attended by all JWs and people interested. Attendance from 1995 to 1999 stayed static at 13-14 million. The number of "Bible Studies" conducted with prospective converts has also barely changed, staying near 4½ million.

The results, then, are mediocre despite the five biggest yearly JW preaching efforts ever – over 1.1 billion hours per year.

In 1995 the JW doctrine that Armageddon followed by paradise on Earth would occur in the lifetime of people alive before World War I was changed after having been taught for about 50 years. Also, only JWs were supposed to survive Armageddon.

With Armageddon now postponed much of the urgency and motivation for joining JWs is gone.

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